How is my prediction keeping up?

After the first two races in Formula 1, it’s time to do a first check on how my pre-season prediction is working out.

The drivers that have got points so far:
1     Sebastian Vettel     German     RBR-Renault     50
2     Jenson Button     British     McLaren-Mercedes     26
3     Lewis Hamilton     British     McLaren-Mercedes     22
4     Mark Webber     Australian     RBR-Renault     22
5     Fernando Alonso     Spanish     Ferrari     20
6     Felipe Massa     Brazilian     Ferrari     16
7     Nick Heidfeld     German     Renault     15
8     Vitaly Petrov     Russian     Renault     15
9     Kamui Kobayashi     Japanese     Sauber-Ferrari     6
10     Sebastien Buemi     Swiss     STR-Ferrari     4
11     Adrian Sutil     German     Force India-Mercedes     2
12     Michael Schumacher     German     Mercedes     2
13     Paul di Resta     British     Force India-Mercedes     2

My prediction (for the whole season):
1 Sebastian Vettel, 5 wins
2 Mark Webber, 4 wins
3 Fernando Alonso, 3 wins
4 Lewis Hamilton, 3 wins
5 Jenson Button, 2 wins
6 Felipe Massa, 1 wins
7 Nick Heidfeld, 1 win
8 Nico Rosberg
9 Michael Schumacher
10 Vitaly Petrov
11 Rubens Barrichello
12 Sébastien Buemi
13 Kamui Kobayashi
14 Sergio Pérez
15 Pastor Maldonado

Looking at the above, it seems I have underestimated Vettels chances for wins after him having dominated the first races. Looks like he may well scoop up more than five wins. I also have overestimated Webbers performances. Overall it looks pretty good and there are lots of races to go.

In the prediction prize leagues I am in, I have had a solid start. Not yet topping the charts as I lost a lot of points in Australia thanks to the disqualification of the Sauber cars. However, things look promising after Malaysia.

1 RBR-Renault
(My guess: 1)
Solid from Vettel. Shaky from Webber. When will Vettel have a down period to let someone else win or even take pole?

2 McLaren-Mercedes
(My guess: 3)
Good job from both Button and Hamilton. Might be able to challenge for wins in a couple of races if they keep up the development of the car.

3 Ferrari
(My guess: 2)
Less than expected so far. Looks like they try too hard because the car isn’t good enough. Then things go bad.

4 Renault
(My guess: 4)
Two podiums in two races. Looks like they aren’t missing Kubica too badly. Looks like the car have a lot more speed that just wants to be digged out. Possible race winner when/if RBR gets some problem.

5 Sauber-Ferrari
(My guess: 8 )
Kobayashi is wonderful to watch on the track. No one has told him it’s difficult to overtake in F1. Please, never do that. With luck they could grab a podium during the season.

6 STR-Ferrari
(My guess: 7)
Good car. Erratic drivers. Will keep trying to get the last points positions, but something is not right in Faenza.

7 Force India-Mercedes
(My guess: 9)
Paul di Resta have surprised me. I know he can win races in other cars, but he has done well in a car that is missing a lot.

8 Mercedes
(My guess: 5)
How Mercedes can be this bad is surprising me. A lot. Looks like the budget restrictions is tough for the team in Brackley. Something has to be done there.

Rest of the teams have no points.

9     Lotus-Renault     0
10     Virgin-Cosworth     0
11     Williams-Cosworth     0
12     HRT-Cosworth     0

Williams is the only surprise there, having a car that wants to break down faster than Alonso asks his team mates to move over. HRT is better than expected, having been able to qualify for a race already.

Bring on Chinas Grand Prix!

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